Most pundits have written off the Brumbies’ chances against the Bulls in Super Rugby‘s second semi-final in Pretoria this weekend (1.05am on Sunday morning in Australia). Fair enough too as the Bulls home record is formidable: they’ve won 91.6% of home games against Australian and New Zealand sides going back five years; have won all five of their Super finals home matches in Pretoria and Soweto; and are unbeaten at home this season.
If that record isn’t enough to spook Aussie rugby fans (sadly, the Brumbies are the only Australian team left in the finals), then throw in a 14-hour, 11,000km flight from Sydney, the inevitable missing luggage and bus breakdowns between hotel and training, a playing field some 1,200m above sea level, and 55,000 fanatical Bulls fans. In fact, listening to the noise out there you have to wonder why the Brumbies don’t just give in now. Why even bother with the odds so hopelessly stacked against success? Well, with respect to the bookies and pundits, we’ll take up the minority argument here and get behind the Brumbies to tame the Bulls.
Too much has been made of the Bulls home record. That impressive home record against Australian and Kiwi sides stretches back to the glory days when Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha ruled. Those man-monsters have long departed, and Pierre Spies is injured. Their various replacements have all been unflinching brutes; indeed, you’d expect South African rugby to produce nothing less. But this year’s Bulls don’t come within cooee of the menacing mob who chewed and spat out all before them in 2007, 2009, and 2010. The Bulls were genuinely scary back then, with Loftus Versfeld a giant feeding pen to satisfy the pack’s insatiable appetite for destruction. Teams didn’t just lose at Loftus, they were physically and psychologically maimed.
These days, the Bulls are a very good side who play half the season wearing pink (away games). Yes, the Bulls have won all eight home games, you say, but with the exception of the Highlanders, Hurricanes and Kings, they’ve all been relatively tight affairs. The fact is the Bulls haven’t torched a decent side at Loftus this season (Hurricanes, arguably, are a decent side but they imploded against the Bulls with the score blowing out in the end). The Western Force got within 10 at Loftus, the Cheetahs six, and the Sharks a solitary point – hardly the stuff to scare the living daylights out of a well-coached, Wallabies-laden top-four visitor.
The Brumbies have Jessie Mogg. He’s been subdued the last few weeks but a hard and fast deck at altitude is the perfect fit for his game, with his long torpedo kicks from the back and John Gallagher-like incisions into the line. He could be the most influential figure in the match and, arguably, the player the Bulls should most fear. Mogg won’t be taken by the occasion either; he’s got a big-match temperament as he showed us in the third Lions Test.
The Brumbies, perversely, can take some consolation in the rubbish they’ve produced in the last two weeks in losing to the Force and then scraping into the semi by the width of an upright against the Cheetahs last week. We can’t play any worse, the Brumbies will tell themselves. They’d be absolutely right. It’s taken longer than expected for the Brumbies to find their groove after the Super Rugby shutdown for the Lions series. However, two games to get the junk out of the system ought to be enough – no more excuses, they should be ready for the Bulls; a team, mind you, they’ve already beaten this season (23-20 in Canberra). Actually, like good therapy, the more you talk about the Bulls the less scary they seem.
A major challenge for the Brumbies this weekend will be Jake White holding his nerve and sticking to his tried and tested game plan. White is a trophy collector with a World Cup and Lions scalps to prove it. However, in recent times he has been unfairly cast by some as a journeyman who only knows structure, discipline and percentages. It’s a load of guff: the Brumbies have scored 43 tries this season, with the Reds – a convenient comparator for advocates of so-called Australian running rugby – scoring just 31 tries.
White needs to keep his head and fight off any egotistical desire to disprove the false perceptions. Now is not the time. Playing anything other than structured, percentage-play rugby against the Bulls would be suicide. Mogg and his wingers, as brilliant as they are on counter-attack, need to punt the manure out of anything in their 22. No visiting side fresh on the high veldt outruns the Bulls at Loftus. It just doesn’t happen. The Hurricanes tried and failed miserably in round 12. The bagmen are offering close to 3-1 odds on a Brumbies win when it ought to be evens. They’ve been taken in by the so-called home record. Here’s tipping the Brumbies to buck the home-win trend.
Not that it would matter a great deal though, as all the smart coin should be on the Crusaders to take the whole shebang. They were magnificent in dismantling the Reds in their qualifying final in Christchurch last Saturday. What more can one say about Daniel Carter that hasn’t already been said? If rugby really is the game played in heaven he’d be the first player picked. The joy of watching him play is only tempered by the depressing thought that one day, sooner rather than later, he’ll have to call it quits. In Carter’s imperious and peerless form, the Crusaders ought to have too much for the Chiefs in the first semi in Hamilton. So, based on the minority view at least, we could be looking at a Brumbies v Crusaders final in Canberra next week.
Last week’s Super 15 qualifying final results: Crusaders 38 d Reds 9; Brumbies 15 d Cheetahs 13.
Talking points
The All Blacks are confident Sonny Bill Williams will return to union. Photograph: Renee McKay/AAP
• Kiwi rugby fans took to Quade Cooper again on the weekend, jeering his every touch against the Crusaders in Christchurch. Even the All Blacks are getting sick of it. “Great win by the boys but please peeps give @QuadeCooper a break!! Disappointed by the boos #moveon,” the All Blacks and Crusaders full-back Israel Dagg tweeted.
• There’s still no word on where Benji Marshall will play his rugby next year. His manager, Martin Tauber, was in talks with the Rebels late on Tuesday. The Blues are rumoured to be slight favourites for the playmaker’s signature, but the Rebels are pitching hard. The sticking point is Benji’s stated desire to “only wear the silver fern”, which means he has to play for a NZ Super team to be eligible for the All Blacks and the NZ sevens team. Tauber told the Guardian an announcement would be made next week, after the Super semi-finals.
• Is Sonny Bill Williams, the biggest name in both rugby codes, about to return to union? The All Blacks think so – and that’s for next year, not in 2015 as SBW’s current employers the Sydney Roosters would like to believe. The New Zealand Rugby Union chief executive, Steve Tew, confirmed talks were under way with the player’s agent, Khoder Nasser, for a 2014 return. “As has always been the case with Khoder, it’s a very up-front conversation,” Tew said. “You know exactly what their intentions are right from the word go and we wouldn’t be having those discussions if we didn’t think there was a possibility of Sonny Bill coming back and playing.”
Brumbies could buck Bulls" Super Rugby record in Pretoria
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