A top mathematician has developed a formula to supposedly identify the winner in Saturday’s Grand National – and predicted the horse part-owned by Bristol rugby player Nicky Robinson will triumph.
Monbeg Dude, which has already won the Welsh National and is also co-owned by Gloucester Rugby players Mike Tindall and James Simpson-Daniel, is expected to come out on top of the world-famous steeple chase at Aintree, if the prediction based on names and numbers proves correct.
GoggleBox intellectual William Hartston, 66, spent days carefully studying the statistics from every single Grand National which has taken place since 1886.
He then used a complex formula which included the bookies’ odds, age of the horse, the letters in the owner’s name, and the letters and number of words in the horses’ names.
And he concluded nine-year-old Monbeg, which is trained by Michael Scudamore and will be ridden by top jockey Paul Carberry, has the best chance of winning the race.
Mr Hartston said: “This year’s scoring system is based on a re-analysis of the results of all Aintree Grand Nationals since 1886.
“Unlike last year, I have given a weighting towards recent years and added an item relating to the name of the trainer.
“I would have liked to include the name of the jockey too, but in many cases this is not available until the morning of the race.
“Had I been able to do so last year, Seabass would not have been my top choice. No jockey whose first name begins with K has ever won the Grand National, so Katie Walsh stood very little chance.
“Monbeg came top and looks like the best bet as far as I’m concerned.
“I love applying statistical techniques to everyday events.‒
Hartston is a Cambridge-educated mathematician and industrial psychologist who was a chess champion in the 1970s.
He has since become a TV boffin, applying statistics to the Miss Great Britain competition and is now a regular ‘viewer’ on Channel 4 show Gogglebox.
After calculating the points total for Saturday’s runners and riders Hartston studied the odds and favourites with a team of experts from William Hill.
The bookies’ spokeswoman Kate Miller said: “Monbeg Dude is the perfect age, level of talent, and stamina to make-up into a first-class Grand National contender.
“With the bookmakers already running scared, the ‘perfect storm’ of royal and sporting connections will also ensure a hefty payout to punters if he wins on Saturday.â€
The system Mr Hartston used is as follows:
Points accumulated are in brackets.
Initial letter – M (4) R, S (3) A,G,L (2) B,C,T,W (1)
Number of letters – 8,10 (4) 7 (3) 11 (2) 9,12 (1)
Number of words – 1 (4) 2 (3) 3 (2) 4 (1)
Age of horse – 9 (4) 10 (3) 8 (2) 7,11 (1)
Trainer first name – J,T (4) G (3) D,W (2) A (1)
Trainer surname initial – M (4) B,R (3) C,H (2) G (1)
The last two items are added together and the sum then halved to give a single figure from 0 to 4 for the trainer’s name.
The top-scoring horses using this system are as follows:
15 – Monbeg Dude and Raz de Maree
14 – Mountainous, Golan Way, Saint Are, Alvarado
13.5 – Wyck Hill
Points were then added depending on the odds offered by William Hill.
Article source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-06/quade-cooper-in-lions-audition-for-wallabies-squad/4737402
Maths formula points to Grand National joy for Bristol Rugby"s Nicky Robinson
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