Rugby League World Cup final: how the Kangaroos can avoid a 2008 repeat

Look to the past

Popular wisdom says that New Zealand will beat Australia just once every 10 times they play – and the facts support the wisdom. Since the turn of the century New Zealand have won only four of the 29 matches they’ve played against Australia; a mere 14% winning record. The catch, of course, and it’s a doozy, is that of those four matches the Kiwis have won, three of them have been in the five finals they’ve contested over the same period: the 2010 Four Nations final, the 2008 World Cup final and the 2005 Tri-Nations final. What gives? Well, with each of these losses, Australia have faced the accusation that complacency may have been a factor. With every upset that occurs that gets harder to believe but since you’ve got to guard against all scenarios, however unlikely, it was reassuring for Australian fans to hear Greg Bird point out that coach Tim Sheens has spoken to his players about the 2008 final, not so much to motivate them (only five of the current squad played in that game) but to remind them what will happen if any of them are complacent. The Kangaroos need to believe – not just consider it a slice of sound reasoning – that they’ll have to be at their best to win at Old Trafford.

Counter the Kiwis’ passion

New Zealand assistant coach Ivan Cleary said this week that his Kiwi squad agreed they let their emotions get the better of them during their epic semi-final against England last week – and that they’d have to reign it in against the Australians lest it leads to too many errors. I’m not sure restraining their emotions is possible for this Kiwi group (for whom emotion and passion seem inextricably linked) let alone desirable. As Sonny Bill Williams pointed out after he was awarded the Rugby League International Federation player of the year award on Wednesday, there’s an abiding sense of brotherhood among the Kiwis and that’s an advantage the New Zealanders seem to have over the Australians (which could be argued offers some explanation for the Kiwi’s big-occasion upsets mentioned above).

Perhaps it’s an impression created by State of Origin football, which draws and compels players into a civil war mindset, but it can sometimes feel from the bleachers that Origin’s strength comes at a cost to the national side. How can you spend months of every season firing salvos across state lines and expect not only harmony (which the Kangaroos seem to have), but unity and, yes, brotherhood, when the best players from each state come together for national duty? Perhaps for as long as State of Origin football is seen as the pinnacle of the game in Australia, the Kangaroos may be prone to faltering on the biggest stage. 

Be proactive in defence

The back end of Saturday’s first and second halves will tell us everything about how affected the two teams have been by their respective preparations. Will the intensity and physicality of the Kiwis’ last gasp semi-final win over England leave them emotionally flat or physically depleted when their lungs and muscles are threatening to pull down the shutters and pack it in for the day? Will the almost ceremonial romp to the final enjoyed by Australia – a team that hasn’t had to get out of their pyjamas since their opening match against England four weeks ago – leave them underdone against an opponent bristling with ability and, more worryingly for Australia, self-belief?

These questions can only be answered in hindsight, of course, but given their two wildly different semi-finals Australia should at least be the fresher of the two teams. The advantage of this is that if they’re willing they should have the fuel to negate the roll-on the Kiwis will be looking to establish in the ruck. This the Kiwis will be looking to accomplish through the bulldozing efforts of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Sam Kasiano and Williams as well as the conniving insurgencies of hooker Issac Luke, who for all the devilry of Shaun Johnson and the multi-faceted gifts of SBW, may be the Kiwis’ most dangerous and influential player. So Australia’s forwards, led by Paul Gallen, would do well to not sit back and wait for their arrival; rather, get in their faces, rattle them, stop them off-loading (particularly Williams), encourage mistakes (without conceding penalties), and reap the benefits. The Kiwis thrive on momentum more than most and the Australians will need to stop it.

Get Inglis and Hayne in the game

You might just give New Zealand’s forwards the edge over Australia’s but if the Kangaroos have a clear advantage over New Zealand it’s in their respective backlines. While Shaun Johnson and Kieran Foran at not too far off Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston, and the two teams’ respective wingers probably cancel each other out, it’s at full-back (Billy Slater Kevin Locke) and in the three-quarters – Greg Inglis and Jarryd Hayne for the Kangaroos versus Bryson Goodwin and Dean Whare for New Zealand – where Australia’s extra class shows and may prove telling. While Hayne has less experience defending in the centres than those he’s leap-frogged to the right centre berth (Brent Tate, Josh Morris and Michael Jennings), his strength, speed, step and unpredictability make him a weapon in attack. His nine tries in the past three games speak to that. As for Inglis, he’s the complete modern player, and as good as anyone in the game, and at times he appears unstoppable. Clearly, with these stallions in the stable, Australia must ensure they see a lot of ball. This will require Australia’s forwards to buy them some room. If they get it, Australia’s backs – particularly Inglis and Hayne – can cut through the Kiwis like scythes through a grain field. 

Get the details right – and kick straight, albeit with a curve

Winning a game of rugby league usually comes down to whose numbers look best on the balance sheet: penalties conceded, tackles missed, offloads made, metres run, tries scored and goals kicked. All these factors will come into play on Saturday at Old Trafford but perhaps, given the closeness of the two teams, goal-kicking could prove the difference on the night. New Zealand will be relying on Shaun Johnson who, until the 2013 NRL season, had never kicked an NRL goal. But under the guidance of the New Zealand Warriors’ kick consultant and goal-kicking great Daryl Halligan, Johnson finished the NRL season with a respectable 75% goal-kicking success rate, and so far in the World Cup he’s landed 29 from 39 attempts, for a 74.3% success rate. Australia’s first choice kicker Thurston, whose natural style is to bend the ball dramatically from right to left, has a better NRL career average at 79.35% but his average over the World Cup is identical to Johnson’s (26 from 35 for 74.3%). Thurston’s bad day against the USA in the quarter-final where he landed just 7 of 12 (58%) is responsible for that. Thurston has been prone to kicking yips in the past but he showed in the semi-final against Fiji that his head was right, landing 10 of his 11 shots at goal. Johnson, for his part, landed the pressure goal of the tournament to date, the overtime conversion that beat England. On the balance of history and experience, however, you’d back Thurston to land the goals when they count most.

Article source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/rugby-ireland-best-idUKL4N0JB2OG20131126

Rugby League World Cup final: how the Kangaroos can avoid a 2008 repeat