New Zealand v England: Stuart Lancaster"s depleted squad embark on mission ...

The adverb ‘fiendishly’ and the adjective ‘difficult’ do not do the task

justice.

Thirty players flew to Auckland last week, but the fact that around 15, most

playing in Saturday’s Aviva Premiership final, have not yet even left for

the tour is disgraceful and nonsensical.

That a solution could not be found is alarming.

Blame whomever or whatever you want – incompetence by the former hierarchy at

the Rugby Football Union and intransigence from the International Rugby

Board and the New Zealand Rugby Union – but it will change nothing.

It is not a new mess, either. France

faced the same problem in New Zealand last year, as they do in Australia

on Saturday.

Rugby union must wise up. The southern hemisphere calls too many shots – for

example, New Zealand had 2011 Rugby World Cup at the time of year they

wanted it; England have theirs next year a lot later than they want it –

with a round of Super Rugby this week including the Test All Blacks hardly

evidence enough of discomfiture.

It is to the RFU’s credit that it did not explore further the possible

ramifications of cancelling this first Test, although it was doubtless

mooted.

Instead, the logistical nightmare has been tackled with cheerful resignation

by this new regime, of whose making it was certainly not.

It will go on. For instance, Stuart Lancaster, the head coach, will be praying

that neither Danny Care nor Ben Youngs gets crocked this week, for he has no

cover at scrum-half.

He has even thought of scaling down the intensity of the contact sessions this

week.

“There is that going through my mind,” he admitted. “But it is quite hard to

do it any other way.

“If you take three scrum-halves, you will end up with five [Lee Dickson

and Richard Wigglesworth arrive this week] and we will have gone from one

extreme to the other.”

But sadly the first port of call when looking ahead to this tour must be to

consider the degree of calamity that the first Test will bring. It is not a

good starting point.

I will let you into a secret: New Zealand will win. There are no Nostradamus

awards there.

But, crucially, I do not think it will be the ritual slaughter most presume.

For England can cope with the losses better than most.

Imagine if Wales were faced with this problem. They have enough trouble with

injuries ahead of their tour to South Africa.

Were they going to New Zealand in England’s position, the tour might be

stopped on humanitarian grounds.

Fly-half and hooker obviously present England’s greatest complications, where

Freddie Burns – after Owen Farrell, Stephen Myler, Alex Goode and George

Ford – and Dave Ward – after Dylan Hartley, Tom Youngs, Rob Webber and David

Paice – are likely to play as fifth choices.

If Joe Marler does not pass muster, loosehead prop will also cause concern.

But otherwise the line-up listed below is not weak, even if Mike Brown also

fails to make it.

Chris Pennell would be set for a first cap after injury prevented Anthony

Watson travelling and Pennell was preferred to Mathew Tait because of his

goal-kicking.

Burns and the other fly-half already in New Zealand, Danny Cipriani, are

erratic goal kickers, so, should he play, Pennell could be handed the

duties.

Whether it is Burns or Cipriani at fly-half, they will have a hugely important

role to play in England’s blitz defence, which was so instrumental in

securing victory at Twickenham in 2012 and causing New Zealand so many

jitters in defeat last year.

“We’ve got a pretty good line speed,” Lancaster said. “If you have got one

player in the line who is not so certain about doing that, it is going to

unpick the whole system.”

When France, shorn of a small number of Top 14 finalists, stunned the All

Blacks in that first Test last summer, losing 23-13 in a match that was

closer than that scoreline suggests, it was because they had changed their

defensive system to a blitz.

New Zealand struggled to cope with it, but, as they do, eventually found a way

to win and then kicked on – or rather kicked a lot – in the second Test

which they won 30-0.

They will doubtless kick a lot against England, too.

Scrum-half Aaron Smith is the best box kicker in the business, the template

for England’s scrum-halves to copy.

Care’s game in that regard has improved much, but it still needs constant

attention.

He kicked poorly in defeat against France and that looked a prime reason for

his supposedly premature substitution that evening in Paris.

At fly-half the great Dan Carter is still on his sabbatical, but he started

only six of New Zealand’s 14 Tests last year.

Aaron Cruden will probably start, but there is growing clamour for Beauden

Barrett to make a first start at fly-half after two at full-back and 14

appearances from the bench.

Tellingly, the brilliant No 8 Kieran Read returned for the Crusaders last

Friday after suffering concussion in mid-April and, more recently, flu.

New Zealand will be ‘fully-loaded’, as seems to be the phrase these days, with

former fly-half Andrew Mehrtens stoking the fires last week in a column in

which he reiterated a comment from his playing days that England were

“p—– to lose to”.

He had not even lost to England when he said that – that moment came at

Twickenham in 2002 – but New Zealand have only lost on seven occasions in 36

matches against England, and just twice from 12 matches at home, in 1973 and

2003.

England were, of course, the last side to beat the All Blacks, in 2012.

And it should not be forgotten that the first autumn international this year

is also against New Zealand.

It will be the first time the All Blacks have played four consecutive Tests

against the same opponents since touring South Africa in 1996.

In effect we have a four-Test series. Given the first-Test fiasco, that might

be the best way to look at it.

I genuinely think England could find themselves at 2-2 in November.

The home match is eminently winnable. England, especially in their attacking

play, have improved enormously since last autumn.

So to win one Test in the next three weeks must be the aim. It can be done.

Probable team M Brown/C Pennell; M Yarde, M Tuilagi, B Twelvetrees, J

May; F Burns, D Care; J Marler/M Mullan, D Ward/R Webber, D Wilson, J

Launchbury, D Attwood, T Johnson, C Robshaw B Morgan.

Article source: http://www.espnscrum.com/other/rugby/story/211697.html

New Zealand v England: Stuart Lancaster"s depleted squad embark on mission ...