Everyone seems to be talking up the Crusaders’ prospects against the Waratahs in Saturday’s Super Rugby final. Even the former Crusaders fly-half Andrew Mehrtens, who is on the Tahs’ payroll as a kicking coach, is convinced his old team will take the trophy. The New Zealand media have their side down as a banker. No surprises there.
It’s all old hat chat though, with fill-in-the-blanks for the opposition. The Crusaders have won seven titles, they’ve beaten the Tahs the last 11 games on the trot, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Dan Carter … the list of reasons goes on and on as to why they will win another title.
But it’s the same spiel we’ve been hearing every year since the Crusaders won the last of their Super titles in 2008 by beating the Waratahs 20-12 in Christchurch. Yet they have not topped the table since, and before this season had progressed past the semi-final stage just once. If anything, more should be made of the Crusaders’ losing record in play-offs in the past five years. Loose talk doing the rounds such as “the Crusaders know how to win finals†doesn’t stack up. The recent evidence says they don’t.
While the Crusaders of 2014 are a more than decent side stacked with All Blacks, including a trio of greats in Carter, McCaw and Read, they are still not in the same class as the title-winning red and blacks of 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002 (undefeated), 2005, 2006 and 2008.
Yes, the Crusaders finished second behind the Tahs in the round robin series – and full credit to them – but they were extremely fortunate with a suspect ruling against the Highlanders in round 15, when Patrick Osborne touched down in the corner in the 80th minute with his side trailing by two points. It was ruled a no try after the ball supposedly touched the try line and side line at the same time. Similar efforts have been rewarded before and since.
As it has turned out, those five competition points for the Crusaders meant the difference between a week’s rest with a home semi-final, and potentially travelling to South Africa to play the Sharks. Of course, that questionable TV match official’s call doesn’t matter now. But it puts the 2014 side in perspective compared with the franchise’s title-winning teams, the last four of which (2002, 2005, 2006 and 2008) topped the table convincingly. In any event, most fans in NSW welcome a Tahs v Crusaders final. It’s unlikely 50,000 would turn out for the Sharks.
What does history mean for Saturday’s final? To quote Henry Ford, history is bunk. “It’s tradition,†he said. “We don’t want tradition. We want to live in the present, and the only history that is worth a tinker’s damn is the history that we make today.†Exactly. The Crusaders ought not receive credit for the deeds of great teams of another era and, equally, the Tahs should not be dismissed on account of a lengthy and at times comical history of misdeeds (hilariously chronicled by Greg Growden at ESPN Scrum, although he doesn’t mention Matt Dunning’s infamous drop kick).
So, junking history other than this season’s form, who is going to win? This column tipped the Tahs at the start of the year, so there’s no jumping ship now. The Tahs are a better side than the Crusaders both statistically and to the naked eye. The Crusaders have flattered to deceive with a top two finish. They have looked quite ordinary at times and really came good only in the past month, including the 38-6 semi-final win against the Sharks last weekend. But that result should be viewed with caution as the Sharks inexplicably rolled over without firing a shot.
The more telling games to gauge the Crusaders’ calibre are their two defeats to the Hurricanes, a side with a very similar playing style to the Tahs – except the Tahs do it with more control, have a superior starting 15 and more damaging firepower off the bench. The Tahs defence should have few problems with the Crusaders’ attack, which only goes side-to-side and rarely penetrates through the midfield. The Crusaders haven’t been able to do that since Sonny Bill Williams left Christchurch for the Chiefs at the end of 2011.
There is one big but for the Tahs – their atrocious line-out. If it doesn’t improve, the Crusaders will win, simple as that. The Crusaders coach, Todd Blackadder, will probably adopt a simple Sharks-style game plan for the final: Carter, Colin Slade and Israel Dagg to kick anything and everything from inside their half and back the line-out to win back possession deep in Tahs’ territory. They won’t be looking for grass on long, raking kicks; out will do just fine.
But if the Waratahs line-out functions as it should, the Crusaders will be in big trouble. Tahs to win by at least 10 points.
Article source: http://www1.skysports.com/rugby-union/news/12507/9147218/wales-scarlets-coach-simon-easterby-hails-jonathan-davies-comeback
Super Rugby final: Waratahs have what it takes to crush paper tiger Crusaders
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