MATCH PREVIEW
In a sporting week dominated by the Cheltenham Festival, Six Nations stayers England are in the hunt for silverware again. For the fourth season in a row, Red Rose fans – and punters – have a shot at the title on the last weekend.
The final day experience has, though, been more fiasco than famous finales in recent years (think
and
).
Analysis
“Mike Brown is playing with a lot of confidence, carries the ball well and is the stand-out full-back in the tournament. No-one is challenging him.”
In years gone by a trip to the Eternal City would have been the perfect location for a point-hungry English side, needing a big win to give themselves the best chance of pipping France or Ireland to the Six Nations title.
No longer. Yes, England have won all 19 meetings with the Azzurri but the last three in Rome have come by a combined margin of just 13 points. Last year’s
was also far from convincing. Saturday’s showdown is not a dead cert, it seems.
The newspapers have triumphantly hailed England’s coming of age this week
after their win over Wales last Sunday
. There have even been predictions, from the New Zealand press no less, that Stuart Lancaster’s side could upset the All Blacks on the summer tour. However, there are no heads in the clouds judging by the
It is victory, not tries galore, they are focused on. But if they were looking for try-scoring encouragement, this year’s trend-bucking Six Nations provides it. Tries have been in decline since the start of the Six Nations in 2000 – 75 overall in each of the first three seasons, just 37 in 2013. This year has delivered 41 prior to the final weekend.
Six of those tries have come from Italy, showcasing their attacking evolution. With the 2015 World Cup looming large, coach Jacques Brunel has given youth its head and been rewarded.
Four of their six try scorers have been 22 or under, while the five players to cross the whitewash have just 44 caps between them. England’s offensive intent has attracted widespread praise, but given the improvements in the Azzurri attack any potential try-fest this weekend seems unlikely to be one-sided.
MATCH FACTS
Head-to-head
- England have won all 19 of their games against Italy.
- England’s average margin of victory in those 19 games is 27 points. However, the last three games in Rome have been settled by five points or fewer.
- Italy have outscored England by three tries to one in the last two meetings.
Italy
- England are the only side Italy have yet to beat in the Six Nations (P19, L19)
- Defeat for Italy would mean they finish bottom for the first time since 2011, but 10th time in total. It would be their fifth whitewash since entering the Six Nations in 2000.
- To avoid finishing bottom, Italy need to beat England, hope Scotland lose in Wales, and overhaul a 25-point deficit.
- Italy have won five of their last 11 Six Nations home games, and in the other six matches they have only once lost by a margin of 10 or more points (9-26 v Wales in 2013).
- A try against England would take Italy to seven for the tournament – their best tally since 2011 (six).
- Italy have won their final-round Six Nations fixture for the last two seasons (Scotland in 2012, Ireland last year).
England
- England will win the title if they beat Italy and France then beat Ireland, assuming France do not make up a 29-point deficit. However, if Ireland win by as little as one point then England must win in Rome by 51 points to overhaul the current 49-point gap.
- England have only lost three games in the last two years, winning 11.
- Only Ireland (two) have conceded fewer tries than England (four) in this year’s tournament.
- England have lost their fifth-round fixtures in three of the previous four seasons (v Wales in 2013, Ireland in 2011, France in 2010).
- Mike Brown made 156 metres against Wales last weekend – a Six Nations-high in 2014. He leads the tournament for metres gained (410), clean breaks (7) and defenders beaten (20).
TEAM NEWS LINE-UPS
Sergio Parisse returns
to captain Italy in one of three changes to the starting XV – all in the pack.
Parisse will start at No. 8 with his replacement against Ireland, Robert Barbieri, shifting to the flank. The other two changes come at prop, with Lorenzo Cittadini and Matias Aguero both starting.
England coach Stuart Lancaster named an unchanged starting XV for the trip to Italy but could yet be forced into a late change after Joe Marler’s partner went into labour on Thursday.
British Lion Mako Vunipola is poised to deputise for Marler, with Matt Mullan ready to be added to the bench. Originally
Manu Tuilagi’s return to the bench
was the the only amendment in the 23.
Italy:
15-Luke McLean, 14-Angelo Esposito, 13-Michele Campagnaro, 12-Gonzalo Garcia, 11-Leonardo Sarto, 10-Luciano Orquera, 9-Tito Tebaldi; 1-Matias Aguero, 2-Leonardo Ghiraldini, 3-Lorenzo Cittadini, 4-Quintin Geldenhuys, 5-Marco Bortolami, 6-Joshua Furno, 7-Robert Barbieri, 8-Sergio Parisse (captain)
Replacements:
16-Davide Giazzon, 17-Michele Rizzo, 18-Alberto de Marchi, 19-George Biagi, 20-Paul Derbyshire, 21-Edoardo Gori, 22-Tommy Allan, 23-Andrea Masi
England:
15-Mike Brown,, 14-Jack Nowell, 13-Luther Burrell, 12-Billy Twelvetrees, 11-Jonny May, 10-Owen Farrell, 9-Danny Care; 1-Joe Marler, 2-Dylan Hartley, 3-David Wilson, 4-Joe Launchbury, 5-Courtney Lawes, 6-Tom Wood, 7-Chris Robshaw (captain), 8-Ben Morgan
Replacements:
16-Tom Youngs, 17-Mako Vunipola, 18-Henry Thomas, 19-Dave Attwood, 20-Tom Johnson, 21-Lee Dickson, 22-George Ford, 23-Manu Tuilagi
MATCH OFFICIALS
Referee:
Pascal Gauzere (France)
Touch judges:
Nigel Owens (Wales) Leighton Hodges (Wales)
TV:
Simon McDowell (Ire)
Article source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26557099
Italy v England
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