Super Rugby season preview: Waratahs can take title

Finally,

the Super Rugby season kicks off for Australian and New Zealand sides following

two South African conference derbies last week. And what an appetiser is

offered this weekend: seven-time champions the Crusaders against reigning

titleholder the Chiefs in Christchurch on Friday.

Those given

to making credible predictions might say fans should look no further that those

two for this year’s champion. No doubt, both sides will be at the sharp end of

the tournament. However, I’m tipping – and I can’t believe I’m doing this – the

NSW Waratahs, with the Sharks close behind.

Here’s a

rough guide to this year’s Super teams and their chances in 2014.

Potential champions

South Africa conference: The Springbok-stacked Sharks under Jake White should top the

South African conference. Travel and homeground advantage, as always, will be

decisive factors. Indeed, for New

Zealand and Australian teams, beating the Sharks in Durban will take some considerable

doing. The Stormers and Bulls might give the SA conference a

shake but they’re not in the same league. Prediction:

Clear-cut – the Sharks will make the Super final.

New Zealand conference: Not as clear as South Africa. The Chiefs and Crusaders will feature at the

money end of the season. But the Blues,

Highlanders and Hurricanes could well bounce back strongly from poor

showings last year. The local derbies will be typically brutal and there will

be homeground upsets along the way. Indeed, the Chiefs and Crusaders won’t be bullies

away from home. The enigmatic Blues could fire with Benji Marshall. His

pre-season trial game form has been uninspiring but he’s a big match player, a

performer who produces his best in packed stadiums. Rene Ranger is a massive

loss for the team though.

Todd Blackadder’s

tenure as coach at the Crusaders is tenuous. Not even the semis will save him.

It’s a simple equation” win the franchise’s eighth title or go. Cantabrians

will accept nothing less. The Chiefs made their run last year off the back of a

sequence of tight games, which could have gone either way. I expect their luck

to run out. Prediction: Crusaders to

pip the Chiefs.

Australia conference: This could be a very good year for

Aussie rugby fans with the Australian Rugby Union putting out a call for attractive,

running rugby. On pre-season trial form, the Aussie coaches have obliged. Of

course, one shouldn’t put too much stock in pre-season trials. However, they

are useful in discerning a team’s basic shape and structure in attack and

defence. And that’s where the Waratahs

and Rebels have looked much improved

(and especially, for the latter, in defence). The ARU will be chuffed at the prospect of

packing stadiums in Sydney and Melbourne off the back of entertaining and winning

rugby. The Reds have had good crowds at Suncorp for several seasons now and

that won’t change this year with Quade Cooper and Will Genia running the show.

The Brumbies with David Pocock back could be interesting. How has Jake White’s

sudden departure impacted the team? Or has Stephen Larkham, cool and collected

as a player, got it covered? Picking a clear Aussie conference winner is not

easy. Although we can eliminate the Western Force. While they don’t yield at

home anymore, they lack the class to take that intensity on the road. They’ll

finish last because of that.

Prediction: The Reds, Brumbies, Rebels or Waratahs? I’m

going with the Tahs. Coach Michael Cheika has diligently put together a Real

Madrid-style stable of world-class talent. Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale, Adam

Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau, Jono Lance in the backs (to name just a few), with

the likes of Dave Dennis, Kane Douglas, Michael Hooper, Sekope Kepu, Wycliff

Palu, Tatafu Polota Nau, and Ben Robinson up front. Yes, the Tahs have always

had flash players who never delivered. The Cheika factor is the difference this

time around. He’s finally beaten the private school sensibilities out of the

playing group. I’m tipping the Tahs to win the Aussie conference and bring the

Super title back to Australia, possibly after an epic final against the Sharks

or Crusaders.

The outsiders

The Blues

are the big wildcard. We simply don’t know what we’re going to get.

Unquestionably the talent is there to go deep into the tournament. But that’s

been said of them most years – and yet there have been no trinkets forthcoming.

The situation is unchanged from previous seasons – if they catch fire, watch

out. The Brumbies and the Reds have their merits, but I can’t see them taking

the title with the Tahs and Sharks in play. Finally, and possibly controversially,

I’m picking the Rebels as a roughie. They’ve recruited well (in their case,

that means getting rid of over-valued, under-performing superstars James

O’Connor and Kurtley Beale), and have in Tamati Ellison the buy of the year.

The Rebels have always scored plenty of tries but defence has been a major

problem. The word in Melbourne though is that has been sorted. Certainly, an

unbeaten pre-season of trial games – a

first for the franchise – suggests something has fundamentally changed. Some say

it’s the no-nonsense approach by new coach Tony McGahan.

Strugglers

Last week the

Lions would have topped the list, but they turned around and pipped the

Cheetahs, a pretty decent side expected to do well this year. I’ll stick to my

tip – but with a key lesson observed: there will be fewer so-called easy games

in 2014. So while the Highlanders, Bulls, Western Force, and Hurricanes are ‘strugglers’,

don’t expect blowout scores. If anything, these supposed strugglers will make

life hell for higher-ranked visiting teams. There wob’t be any banker points as

such. Super rugby is in relatively decent health with a good spread of

established and developing talent across the franchises (the Lions are probably

the only exception). It’s often said the hallmark of a great competition is

when a team can finish last one season and win the title the next. Super Rugby

isn’t there yet, but teams are getting closer. If that weren’t the case, the

Crusaders would have won titles numbers eight, nine and ten by now. And it’s

why the Chiefs won’t win three on the trot.

Super Rugby season preview: Waratahs can take title